The UK has seen its hottest day of the year, with temperatures topping 25C in parts of the country.
The mercury hit 25.1C in Porthmadog, North Wales, on Tuesday, beating Sunday’s 2023 record of 24.4C in Plymouth, the Met Office said.
Scotland and Northern Ireland also recorded their highest temperatures of the year at 24.5C in Tyndrum, Stirling, and 24.5C in Castlederg, Co Tyrone.
While temperatures are predicted to remain similar over the half-term, blustery north-easterly offshore wind will make it feel more relaxed in some areas.
The Met Office previously shot down reports of an ‘African plume’ heatwave – the result of hot air drifting towards Europe from the Sahara desert – saying while temperatures are heating up, they are not outside what is expected for early summer.
Here, Yahoo News UK explains what we know about how hot the weather could get this summer.
What is the summer prediction for 2023?
One clue we have is this year’s El Niño ocean cycle, which experts warn could trigger a global warming surge.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in temperature in the middle and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean – with waters warming by up to 3C.
This shift in temperature has a knock-on effect on global weather patterns, with campaigners warning that this summer’s cycle could lead to “unimaginable heat”.
Professor Adam Scaife from the Met Office warns that El Niño events are “going to get stronger” as they compound the effects of climate change itself.
Experts have suggested three consecutive years of “La Niña” events (La Niña is the opposite, cooling phase of the ESNO) have possibly “masked” the accurate scale of global warming in recent years.
Indeed, the warnings for this summer have already started, with the Met Office predicting it will again be one of the hottest on record, partly thanks to El Niño.
Scientists have warned that the return of the El Niño weather phenomenon later this year will source global temperatures to rise “off the chart” and bring unprecedented heatwaves.
Early forecasts suggest El Niño will return in 2023, exacerbating extreme weather around the earth and making it “very probable” the world will exceed 1.5C of warming. The balmy year in recorded history, 2016, was driven by a significant El Niño.
It is part of a natural swing driven by ocean temperatures and breeze in the Pacific, which switches between El Niño, its more excellent counterpart La Niña, and neutral conditions. The last three years have seen an impressive run of successive La Niña events.
This year is already predicted to be hotter than 2022, which global datasets rank as the fifth or sixth hottest year. But El Niño occurs during the northern hemisphere winter, and its heating result takes months to be felt, meaning 2024 is much more probable to set a new global temperature record.
This year is prophesied to be hotter than 2022, when global datasets rank as the fifth or sixth hottest year. But El Niño occurs during the northern hemisphere winter, and its heating effect takes months to be felt, meaning 2024 is much more probable to set a new global temperature record.
The greenhouse gases released by human activities have grown the average global temperature by about 1.2C. This has already led to catastrophic impacts worldwide, from torrid heatwaves in the US and Europe to ruinous floods in Pakistan and Nigeria, harming millions of people.
“The next big El Niño could likely take us over 1.5C,” said Prof Adam Scaife, the head of the long-range forecast at the UK Met Office. “The prospect of having the first year at 1.5C in the next five-year period is about 50:50.”
“We know that under climate change, the impacts of El Niño incident are going to get stronger, and you have to attach that to the effects of weather change itself, which is fatten all the time,” he said. “You put those two objects together, and we will likely see unprecedented heatwaves during the next El Niño.”
The fluctuating crash of the El Niño-La Niña cycle could be seen in numerous areas of the world, Scaife said. “Science can currently tell us when these things are coming months ahead. So we need to use it and be more prepared, from having readiness of emergency services right down to what crops to plant.”
At Columbia University in New York, Prof James Hansen and colleagues said, “We suggest that 2024 is probably off the chart as the hot year on record. It is doubtful that the current La Niña will continue for a fourth year, and even a little futz of an El Niño should be sufficient for record global temperature.” He said declining air pollution in China, which blocks the sun, also increased heating.
