The Stats Perform, and Opta artificial intelligence prediction model predicted that England would win their first match by a one-to-ten margin, placing them fourth out of all the teams.
Wales has only one in 200 chance of winning, and Brazil is still the favorite.
Which team is expected to make the most progress?
In Stats Perform’s and Opta’s prediction model, England will make it to the final before losing to Brazil, although it depends on how they fare against France in the quarterfinals.
Wales is not expected to make it out of the group stages, despite a draw in their first match against the US.
In the following table, likely games are based on the likelihood that each player will reach the next round, not the probability that the player will win.
Given the quality of chances created, England was expected to score just over two goals against Iran, according to the football stats platform FotMob, but managed to score 6.
Given the chances they created, Wales scored one, putting them just ahead of expectations.
The first player born in this millennium to score at the World Cup, the first goal for England came from 19-year-old Jude Bellingham.
Bukayo Saka, who scored twice in their first game, was the standout player for England. As a result, he scored 9 out of 10 on his performance evaluation, well above the average performance rating for the team.
Wales captain Gareth Bale delivered their only goal, earning him a score of 8.2, with the team averaging 6.9.
Performance ratings for each player are calculated by FotMob using over 300 individual data points.
See how Saka and Bale compare to the other England players below.
Wales and England’s teams are doing well overall.
FotMob scores show that nine of the 16 England players in the first game did better than they did in their league matches this season, and only five performed worse.
Eight of the 14 players made their league debut against the US for Wales.